摘要
20 世紀 90 年代以來，全球經濟一體化的趨勢不斷加強，在國際金融領域建立區域貨幣聯盟成為大的趨勢。2008 年，美國次貸危機引發的全球經濟動蕩掀起了重構國際貨幣體系的浪潮，美元本位制受到沖擊，區域貨幣合作及尋找區域內穩定性駐錨的進程加速。當前，內地已成為香港、澳門、臺灣的最大貿易伙伴，“兩岸四地”經貿、人員往來日益頻繁，雙邊或多邊合作的廣度與深度不斷延伸，當前的“一國四幣”格局衍生的匯率風險、外匯風險等日益凸顯，有必要重新審視和研究當前貨幣格局的合理性。
本文首先對國內外關于貨幣合作、貨幣聯盟及最優貨幣區形成與發展的研究成果進行了綜述，分析了“兩岸四地”貨幣合作框架下的相關理論。其次，在最優貨幣區理論研究基礎上，對最優貨幣區的理論機理與相關實踐進行了總結。再次，從實際情況出發，歸納出“兩岸四地”在地緣、人緣、經貿往來等方面優勢條件，以及當前面臨的制度差異、政治障礙等方面困難，綜合分析“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的內在氛圍。然后，文章在相關研究基礎上，以最優貨幣區理論為基礎，對“兩岸四地”市場開放度、金融一體化程度、構建最優貨幣區的成本與效益進行分析，運用結構向量自回歸模型和貨幣錨效應模型分別對“兩岸四地”的經濟沖擊對稱性條件和現實貨幣錨定程度進行實證分析。最后，提出“兩岸四地”最優貨幣區基本構想，總結結論。
研究結論顯示，“兩岸四地”已經具備了構建最優貨幣區的部分條件，經濟開放程度、金融一體化程度等方面差距逐漸縮小，整體收益要大于整體成本。同時，在面對經濟沖擊時，“兩岸四地”整體上也表現出一定的對稱性，港澳臺幣對人民幣的隱性錨定程度在加強，對構建最優貨幣區而言都具有顯著的正面作用。
關鍵詞：兩岸四地；最優貨幣區；SVAR 模型；貨幣錨；實現路徑
Abstract
Since the 1990s, the trend of global economic integration gets continuously strengthened,and it becomes a common trend to establish regional monetary union. In 2008, the US subprimemortgage crisis triggered the turmoil of the global economic and set off a wave of reconstructionof the international monetary system. The dollar standard gets shocked. At the same time, itaccelerates the process of regional monetary cooperation and exploring the stable anchor.
Currently, the Chinese mainland has become the largest trading partner of Hong Kong, Macaoand Taiwan, the Four Regions of Cross-Straits trade and personnel exchanges become morefrequent, the breadth and depth of bilateral or multilateral cooperation constantly extends.Thecurrent “one country, four currency” pattern implies increasingly prominent exchange rate riskand foreign exchange risk.It is necessary to re-examine and study on the rationality of the currentmonetary situation.
Firstly, this paper reviews the domestic and external research on international monetarycooperation, monetary union, the formation and development of optimal currency area ,andanalyzes relative theory under the framework of the Four Regions of Cross-Straits; Secondly, Onthe basis of the optimal currency area theory study, this paper summarizes the mechanism of theoptimum currency area theory and related example .Thirdly, this paper sums up some advantagesat the geographic , popularity, economic and trade exchanges, and some facing difficultieslike the institutional difference and political obstacles .Then this paper analyzes comprehensivelythe inner atmosphere of constructing the optimal currency area for the the Four Regions ofCross-Straits. Thirdly, this paper sums up some advantages at the geographic , popularity,economic and trade exchanges, and some facing difficulties like the institutional difference andpolitical obstacles .Then this paper analyzes comprehensively the inner atmosphere ofconstructing the optimal currency area for the the Four Regions of Cross-Straits. Fourthly,based on the optimal currency area theory and related research, this paper analyzes the marketopenness, the degree of financial integration, the cost and benefits of building an optimalcurrency area. Then the empirical analysis analyzes the economic impact of symmetryconditions and real degree of monetary anchor though a structural vector auto regression modeland monetary anchor effect model . Finally, this paper puts forward some basic conceptions forconstructing the optimal currency area , summarizes the conclusions.
The study concluded that, it already has been provided with some conditions, like economicopenness, the degree of financial integration, to construct optimal currency area. Such gaps aregradually reduced , and the overall revenue is greater than the overall cost. Meanwhile, the FourRegions of Cross-Straits also performs overall a certain symmetry facing economic shocks, andHKD, Macanese pataca ,TWD performs strengthened on tacit anchoring degree for RMB to,which in terms of constructing optimal currency area has a significant positive effect.
Key Words:Four Regions of Cross-Straits; the structure vector auto regressive （SVAR） model;optimum currency area ; currency anchor effect;achievement path
目錄
摘要
Abstract
目錄
1 導論
1.1.選題依據與研究意義
1.2.研究思路與及內容安排
2 國內外研究綜述
2.1 國外研究綜述
2.2 國內研究綜述
2.3 現有研究評述
3 相關概念與理論基礎
3.1 相關概念
3.2 理論基礎
4 最優貨幣區的理論機理與應用研究
4.1 最優貨幣區形成的淵源與依據
4.2 最優貨幣區的內涵與功能特征
4.3 最優貨幣區的演化與發展
4.4 歐盟構建最優貨幣區的經驗與啟示
5 “兩岸四地”構建最有貨幣區的優勢條件與面臨困難分析
5.1 “兩岸四地”構建最有貨幣區的優勢條件
5.2“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區面臨的困難
6 “兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的實證研究
6.1“兩岸四地”市場開放度和金融一體化的實證分析
6.2“兩岸四地”貨幣合作條件的檢驗
6.3“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的成本與效益分析
6.4 港澳臺貨幣對人民幣的貨幣錨定分析
7 兩岸四地“最優貨幣區”的基本構想
7.1“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的目標
7.2“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的路徑
7.3“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的策略
8 本文的基本結論、主要創新和進一步研究方向
8.1 結論
8.2 創新之處
8.3 不足之處與進一步研究方向
參考文獻
致謝
20 世紀 90 年代以來，全球經濟一體化的趨勢不斷加強，在國際金融領域建立區域貨幣聯盟成為大的趨勢。2008 年，美國次貸危機引發的全球經濟動蕩掀起了重構國際貨幣體系的浪潮，美元本位制受到沖擊，區域貨幣合作及尋找區域內穩定性駐錨的進程加速。當前，內地已成為香港、澳門、臺灣的最大貿易伙伴，“兩岸四地”經貿、人員往來日益頻繁，雙邊或多邊合作的廣度與深度不斷延伸，當前的“一國四幣”格局衍生的匯率風險、外匯風險等日益凸顯，有必要重新審視和研究當前貨幣格局的合理性。
本文首先對國內外關于貨幣合作、貨幣聯盟及最優貨幣區形成與發展的研究成果進行了綜述，分析了“兩岸四地”貨幣合作框架下的相關理論。其次，在最優貨幣區理論研究基礎上，對最優貨幣區的理論機理與相關實踐進行了總結。再次，從實際情況出發，歸納出“兩岸四地”在地緣、人緣、經貿往來等方面優勢條件，以及當前面臨的制度差異、政治障礙等方面困難，綜合分析“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的內在氛圍。然后，文章在相關研究基礎上，以最優貨幣區理論為基礎，對“兩岸四地”市場開放度、金融一體化程度、構建最優貨幣區的成本與效益進行分析，運用結構向量自回歸模型和貨幣錨效應模型分別對“兩岸四地”的經濟沖擊對稱性條件和現實貨幣錨定程度進行實證分析。最后，提出“兩岸四地”最優貨幣區基本構想，總結結論。
研究結論顯示，“兩岸四地”已經具備了構建最優貨幣區的部分條件，經濟開放程度、金融一體化程度等方面差距逐漸縮小，整體收益要大于整體成本。同時，在面對經濟沖擊時，“兩岸四地”整體上也表現出一定的對稱性，港澳臺幣對人民幣的隱性錨定程度在加強，對構建最優貨幣區而言都具有顯著的正面作用。
關鍵詞：兩岸四地；最優貨幣區；SVAR 模型；貨幣錨；實現路徑
Abstract
Since the 1990s, the trend of global economic integration gets continuously strengthened,and it becomes a common trend to establish regional monetary union. In 2008, the US subprimemortgage crisis triggered the turmoil of the global economic and set off a wave of reconstructionof the international monetary system. The dollar standard gets shocked. At the same time, itaccelerates the process of regional monetary cooperation and exploring the stable anchor.
Currently, the Chinese mainland has become the largest trading partner of Hong Kong, Macaoand Taiwan, the Four Regions of Cross-Straits trade and personnel exchanges become morefrequent, the breadth and depth of bilateral or multilateral cooperation constantly extends.Thecurrent “one country, four currency” pattern implies increasingly prominent exchange rate riskand foreign exchange risk.It is necessary to re-examine and study on the rationality of the currentmonetary situation.
Firstly, this paper reviews the domestic and external research on international monetarycooperation, monetary union, the formation and development of optimal currency area ,andanalyzes relative theory under the framework of the Four Regions of Cross-Straits; Secondly, Onthe basis of the optimal currency area theory study, this paper summarizes the mechanism of theoptimum currency area theory and related example .Thirdly, this paper sums up some advantagesat the geographic , popularity, economic and trade exchanges, and some facing difficultieslike the institutional difference and political obstacles .Then this paper analyzes comprehensivelythe inner atmosphere of constructing the optimal currency area for the the Four Regions ofCross-Straits. Thirdly, this paper sums up some advantages at the geographic , popularity,economic and trade exchanges, and some facing difficulties like the institutional difference andpolitical obstacles .Then this paper analyzes comprehensively the inner atmosphere ofconstructing the optimal currency area for the the Four Regions of Cross-Straits. Fourthly,based on the optimal currency area theory and related research, this paper analyzes the marketopenness, the degree of financial integration, the cost and benefits of building an optimalcurrency area. Then the empirical analysis analyzes the economic impact of symmetryconditions and real degree of monetary anchor though a structural vector auto regression modeland monetary anchor effect model . Finally, this paper puts forward some basic conceptions forconstructing the optimal currency area , summarizes the conclusions.
The study concluded that, it already has been provided with some conditions, like economicopenness, the degree of financial integration, to construct optimal currency area. Such gaps aregradually reduced , and the overall revenue is greater than the overall cost. Meanwhile, the FourRegions of Cross-Straits also performs overall a certain symmetry facing economic shocks, andHKD, Macanese pataca ,TWD performs strengthened on tacit anchoring degree for RMB to,which in terms of constructing optimal currency area has a significant positive effect.
Key Words:Four Regions of Cross-Straits; the structure vector auto regressive （SVAR） model;optimum currency area ; currency anchor effect;achievement path
目錄
摘要
Abstract
目錄
1 導論
1.1.選題依據與研究意義
1.2.研究思路與及內容安排
2 國內外研究綜述
2.1 國外研究綜述
2.2 國內研究綜述
2.3 現有研究評述
3 相關概念與理論基礎
3.1 相關概念
3.2 理論基礎
4 最優貨幣區的理論機理與應用研究
4.1 最優貨幣區形成的淵源與依據
4.2 最優貨幣區的內涵與功能特征
4.3 最優貨幣區的演化與發展
4.4 歐盟構建最優貨幣區的經驗與啟示
5 “兩岸四地”構建最有貨幣區的優勢條件與面臨困難分析
5.1 “兩岸四地”構建最有貨幣區的優勢條件
5.2“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區面臨的困難
6 “兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的實證研究
6.1“兩岸四地”市場開放度和金融一體化的實證分析
6.2“兩岸四地”貨幣合作條件的檢驗
6.3“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的成本與效益分析
6.4 港澳臺貨幣對人民幣的貨幣錨定分析
7 兩岸四地“最優貨幣區”的基本構想
7.1“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的目標
7.2“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的路徑
7.3“兩岸四地”構建最優貨幣區的策略
8 本文的基本結論、主要創新和進一步研究方向
8.1 結論
8.2 創新之處
8.3 不足之處與進一步研究方向
參考文獻
致謝
